So the Labor Party in Tasmania have gone dirty. Early and hard as well. They're really laying the boots in hoping to scare people with a negative campaign. At the same time they're spending money like there's no tomorrow (which for them, there isn't).
Interesting news.
The latest EMRS poll (with a tiny dataset admittedly) has a consistent Green vote statewide of around 23% with 40% in Denison. Given the upward Green trend in Denison theres a real possibility of 2 seats there. That means that there's a real possibility of David Bartlett losing is seat! Ken Sturgess has the bogan vote sewn up and Lisa Singh has the greenie/swearing at media/hard left Labor vote sewn up (apparently) so Bartlett might be on his arse. In fact looking at the numbers (off a tiny dataset as said) Labor could be looking at only 7 seats. More likely is 9 seats, with a hung parliament.
Pollywaffle. Apparently when asked on radio whether it was an attack on Polley and Llewellyn she replied "no, and Rene Hidding"! Not "no, it's an attack on Rene Hidding" but AND Rene Hidding!
Also, Bartlett announced yesterday or the day before $3million dollars for the Simplot factory in Ulverstone. He then claimed that thanks to that money Simplot would be staying. Except of course, that Simplot had already announced that a) they were staying and b)they'd committed to spend 17 or 18 million dollars of their own money in the factory anyway.
When Bartlett turned up and announced money for a project (money they hadnt asked for and don't know what exactly it's meant to be for) and then claimed credit for stopping Simplot from going offshore, apparently an awful lot of people there were quite angry.
Anyway, fascinating times.
Things to think about: This is Paul O'Hallorans best (and last) chance to win a seat in Braddon for the Greens. Polling shows that he's a strong chance but he has almost no personal vote, so it's still a mystery
Lots of people are going to be voting Green this election (anecdotally), but they're not Labor supporters. Look to see a lot more Green preferences flow to the Liberals than normal.
Compare and contrast he Labor attack ads with the Liberal candidate ads (haven't seen any Labor candidate ads in Braddon). The contrast is massive and I think there would have to be some positive resonance in the electorate.
Labor are in panic mode, except the dirty campaign to get even dirtier!
Harry out
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Free Agency
So it seems that the AFL has finally come up with a deal to allow players "free agency", basically the ability to move club if they are out of contract but their current club doesn't want to trade them. This column by Patrick Smith seems to sum it up quite simply, although I have seen some discrepancy in different reports, whether it's 8 years service for star players (top 25% of earners) or 10 years.
Except, to my ignorant eyes it seems remarkably similar to how the system works now (Luke Ball going into the draft with no guarantees of where he would end up, for example).
Now I'm not going to go all muggaccino like Jeff Kennett has and announce that it's the death of football as we know it, but I have to admit I didn't really see the need for free agency and even now I don't necessarily agree with the changes. In fact, many of the points that Jeff brings up seem quite legitimate to me, especially since, speaking from the perspective of a club with what, 45,000 members? he is definitely in a stronger position.
It definitely would have been interesting to see what would have happened if a case had gone before a court though, any club that sponsored such an action (even implicitly) would be creating a rod for its own back by setting a dangerous precedent. As such, you can't imagine such a situation being likely to happen anytime soon.
Now one of the comments on the first link to the Herald Sun was this one
Wombat of Brisbane Posted at 8:29 AM Today
Not sure if the Players Association has done what is best for their members. They have definitely helped the minority of disgruntled players who want to move clubs and they have definitely helped the bank accounts of the best players in the competition. I think they may have inadvertantly cut the earnings of the majority of their members who are neither disgruntled or stars.
I think that that's an extremely valid point. Sure, a few people want to change clubs and a few players can attract mega salaries if they do move (Ablett, Judd, Brown, Buddy etc) but the majority of players are not only unlikely to want to move, but unlikely to be viewed as that desirable by other clubs, certainly not desirable enough to offer significantly boosted salaries to. The majority of the players out there are having their share of the salary cap cut, while a few stars take away a higher percentage.
A couple of other comments from the Kennett article also seemed quite insightful to me.
jeff from perth of perth Posted at 2:19 PM Today
Nothing has been said regarding how if a player in the top ten money earners goes to the club of his choice how that will effect that clubs salary cap. The salary cap dictates how much gets paid to the players, does it mean that if a club gains one of these players, how many players must that club jettison to keep under the salary cap. Please explain? I'd love Ablett in a Carlton jumper but if that meant Carlton would have to loose Gibbs, Kruezer and say Murphy to fit him in I'd be totally against the move. It seems to me the only persons to benefit under these new rules will be the player manager; they will always get their 10% and never have to deal with angry, disillusioned supporters.
Except, to my ignorant eyes it seems remarkably similar to how the system works now (Luke Ball going into the draft with no guarantees of where he would end up, for example).
Now I'm not going to go all muggaccino like Jeff Kennett has and announce that it's the death of football as we know it, but I have to admit I didn't really see the need for free agency and even now I don't necessarily agree with the changes. In fact, many of the points that Jeff brings up seem quite legitimate to me, especially since, speaking from the perspective of a club with what, 45,000 members? he is definitely in a stronger position.
It definitely would have been interesting to see what would have happened if a case had gone before a court though, any club that sponsored such an action (even implicitly) would be creating a rod for its own back by setting a dangerous precedent. As such, you can't imagine such a situation being likely to happen anytime soon.
Now one of the comments on the first link to the Herald Sun was this one
Wombat of Brisbane Posted at 8:29 AM Today
Not sure if the Players Association has done what is best for their members. They have definitely helped the minority of disgruntled players who want to move clubs and they have definitely helped the bank accounts of the best players in the competition. I think they may have inadvertantly cut the earnings of the majority of their members who are neither disgruntled or stars.
I think that that's an extremely valid point. Sure, a few people want to change clubs and a few players can attract mega salaries if they do move (Ablett, Judd, Brown, Buddy etc) but the majority of players are not only unlikely to want to move, but unlikely to be viewed as that desirable by other clubs, certainly not desirable enough to offer significantly boosted salaries to. The majority of the players out there are having their share of the salary cap cut, while a few stars take away a higher percentage.
A couple of other comments from the Kennett article also seemed quite insightful to me.
jeff from perth of perth Posted at 2:19 PM Today
Nothing has been said regarding how if a player in the top ten money earners goes to the club of his choice how that will effect that clubs salary cap. The salary cap dictates how much gets paid to the players, does it mean that if a club gains one of these players, how many players must that club jettison to keep under the salary cap. Please explain? I'd love Ablett in a Carlton jumper but if that meant Carlton would have to loose Gibbs, Kruezer and say Murphy to fit him in I'd be totally against the move. It seems to me the only persons to benefit under these new rules will be the player manager; they will always get their 10% and never have to deal with angry, disillusioned supporters.
Sure Buddy or Ablett are damn good players, but are they better than 2 or 3 middle or lower-upper tier players? If I had a choice of Ablett or a package deal of Gibbs, Kruezer and Murphy I'd go for the package deal everytime. Sure it's nice to have stars, but great teams have depth and consistency, 22 players who can deliver (why did Gary Ablett senior never win a flag?) Geelong, St Kilda and Sydney have reinforced this need for consistency in the list over recent years.
rust of brisbane Posted at 1:20 PM Today
Is`nt that like putting the shoe on the other foot now.So all the clubs will have to be extra nice to their players.They say that loyalty should prevail, but have a look at so many players that have been loyal then told that there not wanted or put up as draft bait.
Now that is a REALLY interesting point. AFL clubs can't afford to be sentimental. Even Kevin Sheedy, who always made an effort to drag players back to make up milestones was a ruthless bastard when it came to player selection. Loyal club servants were traded or dropped when it was needed. If there's no loyalty shown by a club than it's hard for the players to feel loved. It's definitely a two way street.
Anyway, what we don't really want to see is a situation like the NRL or gridiron where players can move clubs mid season. Having strong clubs with traditions and players with associations with those clubs might not be good for players, but it's certainly great for our game. If the players don't like it, let them go play for Werribee!
cheers
Dr Harry
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Tasmanian state election...
Tonight I saw an ad on TV for Rebecca White, one of the Labor candidates in the seat of Lyons for the upcoming state election.
This ad featured lots of language about a "fresh start", "making a change", "someone you can trust" and all the usual stuff. I can't really remember specifics unfortunately.
For me, the really compelling thing was that the language was phrased in such a way to imply that Rebecca White, if elected, would be going to Hobart to make changes and run a clean broom through the place. It was a perfect ad, for a Liberal candidate.
I didn't even know which party she was part of until the very end of the ad, when a small Labor logo and the authorisation bit came up.
Why is this important? Because the Labor government is screwed and Labor know this. She's running as a change candidate because she knows trying to get elected as a Government candidate will simply lead to failure. It's quite noticeable when driving around Braddon just how many Liberal posters and bill boards are up. They are out in significant numbers and often significant sizes as well. The only Labor advertising I've seen has been from Helen Richardson, who has three full size billboards between Burnie and Latrobe. Apparently her campaign is fully funded by the union that she runs so maybe she can afford to do that. The other Labor candidates aren't advertising because they don't think there's any point. Why waste money on a lost cause?
Actually, I have seen one other piece of Labor advertising. Bryan Green had a poster on the back of one of the Metro buses in Burnie. In a moment of supreme and perfect irony, I saw this bus with a big yellow poster plastered on the back which said something along the lines of "beginner driver under instruction" or something similar, right next to Bryan Green's photo!
I got a photo on my phone, but unfortunately I was too far away and you can't actually see anything :(
So the point of this post?
Labor are screwed. Liberals are aiming for majority Government. Most likely result; hung Parliament with Labor returned as a minority Government. How to avoid this? Get the Liberals and Greens to gang up in a vote of no-confidence in the Government, required the Governor to ask another party to form Government. Either way, it's interesting times ahead!
cheers
Harry
This ad featured lots of language about a "fresh start", "making a change", "someone you can trust" and all the usual stuff. I can't really remember specifics unfortunately.
For me, the really compelling thing was that the language was phrased in such a way to imply that Rebecca White, if elected, would be going to Hobart to make changes and run a clean broom through the place. It was a perfect ad, for a Liberal candidate.
I didn't even know which party she was part of until the very end of the ad, when a small Labor logo and the authorisation bit came up.
Why is this important? Because the Labor government is screwed and Labor know this. She's running as a change candidate because she knows trying to get elected as a Government candidate will simply lead to failure. It's quite noticeable when driving around Braddon just how many Liberal posters and bill boards are up. They are out in significant numbers and often significant sizes as well. The only Labor advertising I've seen has been from Helen Richardson, who has three full size billboards between Burnie and Latrobe. Apparently her campaign is fully funded by the union that she runs so maybe she can afford to do that. The other Labor candidates aren't advertising because they don't think there's any point. Why waste money on a lost cause?
Actually, I have seen one other piece of Labor advertising. Bryan Green had a poster on the back of one of the Metro buses in Burnie. In a moment of supreme and perfect irony, I saw this bus with a big yellow poster plastered on the back which said something along the lines of "beginner driver under instruction" or something similar, right next to Bryan Green's photo!
I got a photo on my phone, but unfortunately I was too far away and you can't actually see anything :(
So the point of this post?
Labor are screwed. Liberals are aiming for majority Government. Most likely result; hung Parliament with Labor returned as a minority Government. How to avoid this? Get the Liberals and Greens to gang up in a vote of no-confidence in the Government, required the Governor to ask another party to form Government. Either way, it's interesting times ahead!
cheers
Harry
Friday, February 5, 2010
all the links that are fit to print...
Remember Juddy? Had a bit of a go at eye-gouging last year? Well apparently he's going to be playing a leading role in Carlton's pre-season campaign, since he's out for the first four weeks of the home and away season. Carlton has won a few pre-season flags recently, could be up for another one. Speaking of which, last year I was telling people that Carlton would make the finals, which they did. Wish I'd put some money on it.
Dr Harry's AFL predictions. The top teams will make the finals, the bottom teams won't make the finals, the middle teams, who knows? I think Geelong may have gone a bridge too far, so to speak, but I could just be speaking out of my arse. Also, I'm an Essendon supporter, but how they go this year depends on a lot of very young players and that's always a tricky thing.
St Kilda
Collingwood
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
Essendon
Geelong
Adelaide
Kangaroos
Sydney
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Melbourne
West Coast
Richmond
Onto other matters.
Got some gold? Want to exchange it for other commodities or means of exchange? Forget the rest, send your gold to these guys.
Here's one for Angus, the 11 most painfully obvious news headlines ever. The only one that can better these is the one Tim Blair featured a couple of years ago, warning about not smoking while repairing your petrol powered mower!
Got spatial awareness? This little tester is quite a challenge and a little bit addictive. My best score is just to the left of the high point on the graph, but practice definitely helps!
This guy is pretty amazing at doing impressions of famous people check it out.
And that's all we have time for...
Dr Harry's AFL predictions. The top teams will make the finals, the bottom teams won't make the finals, the middle teams, who knows? I think Geelong may have gone a bridge too far, so to speak, but I could just be speaking out of my arse. Also, I'm an Essendon supporter, but how they go this year depends on a lot of very young players and that's always a tricky thing.
St Kilda
Collingwood
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
Essendon
Geelong
Adelaide
Kangaroos
Sydney
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Melbourne
West Coast
Richmond
Onto other matters.
Got some gold? Want to exchange it for other commodities or means of exchange? Forget the rest, send your gold to these guys.
Here's one for Angus, the 11 most painfully obvious news headlines ever. The only one that can better these is the one Tim Blair featured a couple of years ago, warning about not smoking while repairing your petrol powered mower!
Got spatial awareness? This little tester is quite a challenge and a little bit addictive. My best score is just to the left of the high point on the graph, but practice definitely helps!
This guy is pretty amazing at doing impressions of famous people check it out.
And that's all we have time for...
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