The future is now...

Apparently Angus is the future of the entertainment and information industries.

Not surprising really.




ps when Angus grows a moustache he looks like Adolf Hitler. Coincidence? I´ll let you be the judge.

Gone but not forgotten

"I saw that Test match on television and had (Michael) Clarke not scored a century in the second innings the margin of defeat could have been over 250 runs," Qadir said.

Then he says we should bring Warne back if we want to win the Ashes.

Can´t disagree, although from the sounds of it replacing Johnson with Stuart Clarke and bowling line and length to the tail enders might be another sensible option.

I believe this is the first time England have won at Lords since 1934?

Harry

death and mayhem

How about this for a fantastic piece of writing?

When describing fatalities during Nascar, the author says:

There are rogue bands of mercenary desperadoes with nothing to lose who have lower casualty rates

Pithy.

Harry

Global Financial Crisis + 1

As I´m sure some of you may have heard, there´s a distinct possibility of the current problems in the US being extended even further. This is because of another class of loans that is about to begin causing big problems.

These are the alt-A loans. The barefoot investor says

If sub-prime loans have been referred to as toxic, then the Alt-As are like passing wind in an elevator—not exactly toxic, but still not pleasant.

People with less-than-stellar credit histories got these loans (liars took out sub-prime).

Just like with sub-prime loans, the honeymoon is ending for many people who took out these Alt-A loans in the boom years. They’re just starting to see their loans reset to higher rates—and the default rates are soaring.

The professionals who watch these things closely predict that over the next 12 to 18 months these loans will be the cause of another wave of mortgage defaults.

Basically, the further down the tube the US financial system goes, the more people get laid off and the more people get freaked out, stop ALL discretionary spending and start eating rice for every meal.

Now the success in recent times of China has been fueled to a large extent by the fact that there were lots of Americans spending lots of money (cash and credit) on crap that was made in China. Basically lots and lots of discretionary spending. Now, obviously crap from China is generally cheap, so there will continue to be some demand, but it is an absolute certainty that consumer spending has taken a big hit and will continue to do so as long as people are worried that they won´t have a job next week (a very real fear for many in the US).

So what does this mean for China? They have a developing home market to sell to, will continue to have some demand in the US and they still sell to markets around the world, both in the developed and developing world (definitely Chinese crap for sale in Ecuador). However, realistically they are going to experience a severe drop in demand. There current free-for-all attitude to capitalism will see an accompanying massive rise in unemployment as factories close or shed staff.

So, we have an oppressive, nationalistic and brutal dictatorship, with a young, male dominated population (some estimates suggest there maybe 40 million more young men than young women in China) and great unrest and dissatisfaction caused by unemployment and hardship.

What do dictatorships sometimes do in situations like this? They find a diversion to take the people´s minds off the problem. How?

Traditionally they start a war.

I don´t think it´s at all unrealistic to expect that a newly empowered China, with billions of dollars cash, a gradually modernising military and a range of domestic problems might see this as a good way to get people supporting the Government and forgetting about domestic issues.

So where?

Probably not Taiwan, although it is definitely possible. Obama seems to prefer talking to doing anything realistic (like deploying a carrier battlegroup) and there might be an opportunity to make some noise and score some points, even if nothing else.

China is basically next door to Russia´s possessions in the East, possessions that are both immensely wealthy and also often underutilised due to Russia´s population crisis. Such a target would be attractive but Russia a) supports China in the Security Council on various matters to do with oppressing human rights and has b) lots of tanks (better than the Chinese) and c) nukes.

India is another neighbour of China and the two have clashed in the past, mostly at brutally high altitudes where nobody is around to hear you scream. This would be a likely scenario, as the conflict could be contained, however there´s nothing very exciting about capturing a mountain or two, it doesn´t really mean anything.

Mongolia is right next door, but China already has shit loads of semi desert, do they really want more? Probably not.

So where than?

The three most likely options as I see them are:

A brutal crackdown of the Uighurs and other ethnic minority groups, under the guise of putting down a rebellion or averting a civil war.

Annexing the Spratley Islands would be another possible move. They are claimed by China, the Philipines, Vietnam and (I believe)Thailand. Apparently some Chinese ships sailed through the area many hundreds of years ago, so that seems a good reason for the Chinese to claim them. This would be a small scale conflict, characterised by sinking a few enemy ships and loudly declaiming that what was rightfully Chinese has been reclaimed.

Similarly, Vietnam for many hundreds of years was a Chinese possession and the two countries even clashed in the late 70´s (the Chinese were embarrassed rather dreadfully). While China is unlikely to want all of Vietnam, they might consider ädjusting¨ the border somewhat, getting a conflict, some land and lots of patriotic fervour, all together in one big package.

Another out there option?

China apparently has 1 million ethnic Chinese in Africa in various positions. The Chinese are the reason that Sudan continues to kill black people with impunity and why Robert Mugabe is still the man in Zimbabwe. While it´s extremely unlikely the Chinese would actually try and conquer anything, they might send in the troops to help an ally out and get some fighting happening.

Of course there´s lots of other possibilities, but I think the idea of China using it´s military as a way to divert attention from domestic issues is a very realistic one.

You heard it here first!

Harry

Triple J - Hottest 100

The Australian radio station Triple J (also known as JJJ) celebrated it´s vote of the hottest 100 songs of all time recently. As the entire blogging world no doubt knows, Angus commented on the result, suggesting that the listeners of said station were out of touch with popular culture (while simultaneously suggesting Stevie Wonder as his second favourite artist of all time!)

It was actually a very good post, you should go and check it out here.

I have to agree with his general view on things, a lot of the songs (or at least the artists) on that list are ones I enjoy, but certainly not ones that I listen to regularly. Nirvana, Queen and the Foofighters are definitely in this category.

So I´ve been thinking about it and about my favourite songs and I´ve come up with some lists of my own. The following are all artists I listen to regularly and really love their music, not just the songs listed, but these are probably my favourites. Listed in no particular order(and I could easily list a dozen for each artist)...

Blackalicious - Feel the way

Johny Cash - Four Strong Winds

Van Morrison - Moondance

Hilltop Hoods - Nosebleed Section

Eminem - Lose Yourself

Nick Cave - Ship Song

If I had nothing but the music of thes 6 artists for the rest of my life I could deal with that. Special mention must go to

Sir Mix-a-lot - Baby got back

Try and find a (youngish) person who doesn´t like this song! Also, one of all my all time favourites, even though I don´t know any of their other songs, is

the Choirboys - Run to Paradise

I love that song, and have done for a long time.

The following are songs and artists which would definitely fit into my top 100 (no problem at all). Some have many great songs, some only have one song worth listening to (Funky Cold Medina anyone?)

Kanye West - Golddigger
Guns and Roses - Cold november rain
Bon Jovi - Blaze of Glory
Fujees - Killing me softly
Roxette - Listen to your heart
Grandmaster Flash - The Message
Bob Marley - Buffalo Soldiers
Survivor - Eye of the Tiger
Tone Loc - Funky Cold Medina
Michael Jackson - Billy Jean
Foofighters - All my life
Grinspoon - Bad Funk Stripe
Public Enemy - Fight the Power
Lupe Fiasco - Kick Push
Bliss n Esso - Up jumped the boogie
Greenday - Time of your life

Special mention must go to the last song. Yes it´s cheesy and massively overused, but it´s actually a fantastic song and very effective at getting people emotional at graduations and similar events.

And the following three songs should be on every Australians top ten list of all time, at least in my personal opinion. They sum up Australia in music. The only possible addition is Tenterfield Saddler, by Peter Allen, but I´ve very rarely heard it.

Icehouse - Great Southern Land
Gangajang - Sounds of Then (that´s the one with the lyrics - out on the patio we sit...)
Men at Work - Land Downunder

So that´s some of the music that I like and that I think has stood the test of time.

I can´t really comment on the rest of the Australian public. I think there´s a still a general dislike or antipathy towards rap music in Australia, especially because many people still automatically associate it with ¨gangsta rap¨and all the negative connotations that brings up. The Hilltop Hoods (and to a lesser extent Eminem) are probably the real breakthrough artists for rap in Australia, they definitely were for me, no doubt at all.

And Angus listed ¨The Boxer¨by Simon and Garfunkel. I haven´t heard that song in years and years, I used to really love it. If I had it on my MP3 player I think it might have made my list as well.

And since my non-existent readers are probably singing to themselves ¨when a girl walks in with an itty bitty waist and a round thing in your face....¨here´s some music for you!

cheers

Harry



ps not much posting lately because of travel and crappy internet cafes. Definitely lots to share though.

There´s something weird in the fridge today, don´t know what it is...

something I can´t recognise.....

Maybe I´m a bad person, but I feel absolutely nothing in relation to the death of Michael Jackson. Maybe a slight annoyance at the excessive and gratuitous coverage, but since I´m in a foreign country and without a TV or enough Spanish to read a newspaper, that´s not really a big deal. Probably my biggest exposure has been nightclubs playing lots of Michael Jackson songs and that´s probably a good thing anyway.

Now I like Jackson´s music, especially if I´m out somewhere. I´ve never really cared for the man himself and like most people have been horrified by his various antics over the years.

However, I really feel neither happiness nor sadness, elation or despair, or anything else for that matter, at news of his passing. I really couldn´t care less.

I just read the following article about the death of John F Kennedy junior showing the similarities between the two situations. I highly recommend it, I laughed out loud as I read it.

Click here, go on, do yourself a favour.

cheers

Harry