Tim Blair has a regular thing on his blog at the moment called "Things scientists say", pulling out quotes from the New York Times archives. Kind of amusing.
But I was thinking about the whole prediction business because of something else and I'd like to share those thoughts with you.
How often do we get a widespread consensus in the media or elsewhere about something, only for it all to be brushed under the carpet and forgotten about when it all turns out to be wrong?
An excellent recent example is the Australia-Pakistan test in Sydney, where Australia chose to bat first. Ricky Ponting copped 4 days of ridicule and then went onto win the test.
The big one that came to my mind when I was thinking of this was George W. Bush. Lots of people I know and lots of people in the media seemed convinced that he was doing his best to create an imperial presidency, that the Patriot Act was destroying democracy and that he would simply refuse to leave office at the end of his term. When that didn't happen, what did they do? they kept on bagging out George W. but just pretended like they'd never said any such thing.
Sometimes you can be swimming against the tide and it seems that no-one else agrees with or supports your point of view. That doesn't mean your wrong though. In science the real breakthroughs are done by people who do what other people say is impossible.
For me, this says, if you have an opinion or position on something and you can justify it (justify it properly) then hold onto that opinion, despite what people say. Changing your opinions to make other people feel better is all well and good, but it won't get you anywhere.
cheers
harry
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