Predictions

It's always nice to have predictions put in place early, so you can prove that you were right! Of course it doesn't work so well if you're wrong, but nothing ventured nothing gained.

First off, the Tasmanian state election.

In Braddon, the smart money is on 2,2,1 ie Labor and Liberal getting 2 seats each and the Greens the single. While this is most likely, I'm going to put my hand up and and say that I think there is a distinct possibility of 1 Labor, 3 Liberal and 1 Green. The other possibility is no Greens at all, but I think my scenario is much more likely.

For the state the Liberals certainly look like they're going to win more seats, but an outright majority is unlikely. I think Will Hodgman is definitely on the right track with his campaigning solidly on a "Liberal majority government" theme. It worked for Labor last time around, with many people deciding late to support the party which could win outright.

The most interesting twist in this election is that anecdotally, many people are saying they're going to vote Green for the first time. This includes many Liberal voters and Labor voters sick of the Labor Party. I predict a lot more Greens preferences are going to swing to the Liberals than normal (a LOT more) which is going to make it very hard for Labor when trying to pick up second seats around the state.

The most likely outcome is a hung Parliament, probably 11 Liberals, 5 Greens and 9 Labor. However, there is a very strong possibility of 6 Greens (with a second in Denison). I think there is a reasonable possibility of 6 Greens, 12 or 13 Liberals and 6 or 7 Labor. THAT would be extremely interesting!

Wildcards:

Health would seem to be the big issue at the moment. I had my class doing some polling and 56 people put health down as the most important issue for this election. 18 put education, 6 put the pulp mill and 4 put jobs! Labor are pushing the health barrow, who knows if it will gain traction for them?

As already mentioned, majority Government is going to be an issue. Many Tasmanians don't like it and don't want it. When faced with the very real possibility of it happening expect to see many of those votes move to the Libs. Will it be enough? Who knows?

Next Federal politics.

Kevin Rudd is on the nose, people are finally waking up and smelling the bull shit and his poll numbers have been on a very slow but steady decline for a while now. Also, Tony Abbot's numbers are about as good as any opposition leader has had.

Labor are on the backfoot and need to keep their head up until after the budget. Abbot needs to get them on the ropes and punch them in the head until they fall. He has the weapons for this, with the insulation debacle, Rudd's ridiculous health scheme and Rudd's seeming feud with the NSW Government. Faffing around with maternity leave schemes does not help the cause, he should be focussing on the Government while he has material to work with.

My prediction:

Labor are in trouble for the next election. Probably unlikely to lose (although Beazley very nearly knocked Howard off after one term) but still take a hiding.

Gillard is waiting until Rudd stuffs up the next election to swoop in and take over. She has the numbers on the left plus she's been all authoritarian and school ma'am-ish, which should help her with the right. Only problem is that that plan won't work if Labor lose the election! Also, Greg Combet is building a head of steam and seems likely to be accumulating votes at the moment, which might be a problem for her.

Global Warming

Global warming is dead. Most people don't seem to have realised it yet, but the idea that the world will end unless we reduce our CO2 emissions has run its course. Maybe we are warming the earth with our emissions (possible but unlikely and basically unverifiable anyway) but even if we are, the negative consequences are small and there's lots of positive consequences.

You want real armageddon stuff? Iran nearly has a nuclear weapon. Pakistan is a hair's breadth away from falling to the fundamentalists. We have a nuclear war in the Middle East and suddenly the world's major supply of oil is no use. How you gonna feed 6 billion people when the vast majority rely heavily on the internal combustion engine to deliver their food to them?

Ok, onto more important stuff.

AFL

The doggies were super impressive against the Saints on Saturday, even though I only saw bits of the game. I have to admit never being a huge fan of the dogs, but now, suddenly, they have some height and I find them much more interesting to watch. They have plenty of tough bodies, plenty of runners and now, some good height in the back line and forward line.

I think anything less than top four is unacceptable and they are a realistic shot for top 2 and a flag.

The Saints have to be good this year, after the build up of last year. They have experience and hunger and talent, how can they not go well? That being said, lots of teams make it to a Grand Final and then disappear from view. As for the Bulldogs, anything less than top four is unacceptable and they are a realistic shot for top 2 and a flag.

Geelong have the team, the talent and the experience, but do they have the motivation? It's an awfully long hill to climb and maybe they've been there too many times already? I would expect a top 4 finish (at least) for the Cats, but they could be much lower.

Collingwood have recruited heavily and look very very good (at least on paper). They are aiming for the flag this year, with Mick's last roll of the dice. I enjoy watching Collingwood play and would like them to do well, but I'm sceptical. The one thing we do know; whatever they do at the start of the season probably has no bearing on the end of the season! If they start well, that's good. If they start poorly that might be better, they'll turn it around and come storming home at the end of the year!

Hawthorn might be back this year, who knows? Buddy is looking significantly improved (apparently he was ordered to bulk up last year, not such a great decision in hindsight) and they have an awesome midfield and forward line. That being said, I still think they're very weak defensively and some teams (Brisbane and St Kilda especially) are going to expose them and cut them up. They want another flag and top 4 is certainly realistic.

Now last, but not least, the mystery package, the Fev and Brown show. Can Brisbane recruit their way to a premiership? Probably not, although their young kids are coming through and they have good rucks, running players and a solid defence. I think Brisbane are the smokey, but personally I'm doubtful they can go all the way.

So that's a top 4 list with 6 teams in it. I think Brisbane and Geelong might miss out, but I wouldn't want to put any money on it!

As for the Coleman, I think Barry Hall is the man to watch this year. Fev no longer has Judd to stick it down his throat, while Riewoldt, Brown and Buddy all have goal kicking partners to spread the load around. Buddy is a big chance but you would have to see Roughead kicking at least 60 this year and if he does that than Buddy probably won't get his century.

Top five? Hall, Franklin, Riewoldt, Brown with Fevola and Roughead tied for fifth!

TFL

Can anyone really see Burnie recovering from the off field debacles of the last few months? Plappy dragged them into a final series that they probably didn't deserve to be in and things have just gone downhill since he left!

NTFL

Surely Ulverstone has to win this year?

Darwin

God himself, in his omnipotent, omniscient omnipresence could probably not say who's going to win this one. I would love Natone to win but I'm kind of sceptical I have to admit, certainly not huge numbers coming to training.


So, there we go, a few random predictions that may or may not come true. Let history be my judge!

Harry