As many people may have heard, the Chinese have vast reserves of foreign currency which they are holding onto and may use to buy the ENTIRE WORLD (or something like that).
At the moment, those reserves are apparently in the order of some $1.4 trillion US. In other words, an awful lot of money.
This article is a great read explaining why the Chinese are doing what they're doing and what the ramifications are.
Basically, the Chinese are getting lots of foreign currency, because they're selling lots of stuff overseas. The vast majority of this currency is being put into safe, long term investments, such as treasury notes and bonds, the majority in US dollars.
By doing this, they are deliberately keeping themselves poor (at least functionally) and ensuring that they stay competitive on a world stage. As an added benefit, the vast amounts of US dollars the Chinese hold are helping to hold up the US economy by keeping the dollar strong and interest rates low. If the Chinese stopped pumping in all this cash the US govt would have to borrow from elsewhere, probably at much higher rates.
By keeping the dollar strong and rates low the Chinese are in effect subsidising the American people (to a significant amount) and thereby enabling them to buy yet more stuff, from the Chinese.
Of course, this isn't much fun for all those poor Chinese people who would quite like some of that money to be spent at home, on things like, say, heaters in schools in areas with blizzards in winter.
However, the Chinese are now in a quandry. If they start pulling their money out, the value of the dollar will fall, thereby lowering the value of the rest of their investments. Not only that, the Chinese currency would rise, making it harder for exporters and the ramifications for govt spending and the economy in the US would be huge. Suddenly the Americans wouldn't be able to buy as much stuff from the Chinese. This ends up in a huge downward spiral.
So rationally, the Chinese can't do anything because they're stuck.
Except, lets face it, people aren't rational, especially crazy, paranoid communist party members convinced that the US is out to get them. Forget the GFC, apocalyptic world economy collapse anyone?
It's a fascinating article, you should definitely read it.
cheers
Dr Harry
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Kicking Ass...
So I saw Kick Ass last weekend. I probably wouldn't have written about it, but I saw the above review and thought what the hell?
I really enjoyed it, there were bits I found quite funny (generally violent bits where people die in unfortunate ways) and lots of great action. However, the movie is billed as an "action/comedy" when in reality it's more a tarantino-esqe gore fest, with a bit of pathos thrown in and a few laughs (for some members of the audience).
I really enjoyed it, but if you don't like blood (and lots of it) and violence in general, than steer clear.
The future is here...
And it looks delicious!
Now I don't really eat much at major chain restaurants (McDonalds, KFC, Hungry Jacks et al), basically because I think the food mostly tastes pretty crap. However, I would definitely eat one of these babies. I might even come back and have a second one! (I have McDonalds every year or two and realise again that the reason I don't eat it is that it tastes so poor).
Couple other things of interest.
Came across some articles by a guy who writes for The Village Voice in New York. Going through his archives there's a great article about gangsta rap and the impact of crack crime and rap culture on young unemployed black men in the ghetto. While it's written in 2003 it's still got some great points about the glorification of gang violence and drug dealing in rap culture, even though much of that lifestyle has disappeared, while the young black men remain unemployed.
There's another great one from the same guy, published in Time magazine, about computer gaming and World of Warcraft in particular. Now, I've never played WoW, but I have played another MMORPG, back before WoW emerged on the scene. One of the reasons that I never signed up was because from all accounts I could find, it took the things that most people do in these games, such as grinding (killing lots of the same monsters to raise your level) and hanging out in safe zones, and made that the point of the whole game. The idea is, if that's what most people do, lets just give them that. Fair enough, it worked for them, as an 8million strong subscriber base will attest to.
However, enough bashing of WoW, the really interesting part of this post is looking at the reasons why people play such games. And the main ones are being able to interact with people, to form communities and do activities, and to have a feeling of accomplishment, of having done great feats, conquered foes and achieved significant goals. I can totally relate to that and still have great memories of running around a virtual world, being scared silly by things that could destroy me in an instant and the excitement of achieving major quests.
Couple more links, if you haven't seen The Escapist and you like video games, than you should. He might rant on a bit, but his reviews are quite good and funny as well. For those who hate his style, his description on Wikipedia will make you feel much better.
Last but not least, a quick piece from the US about teacher unions and their various failings. There's some similarities with Oz and there's some differences, but generally I agree with the point that unions care more about teachers than they do students (as they should, that's their role) and that we need to find some way of recognising those better teachers rather than paying all teachers identically, no matter their ability or location. Why does a crap teacher in an easy school get paid exactly the same as an amazing teacher in a difficult school when they both have the same experience?
That being said, I think NAPLAN is crap and almost useless as a diagnostic tool for individual students and the idea of relying on it for anything at all seems to be quite pointless.
Harry out!
Now I don't really eat much at major chain restaurants (McDonalds, KFC, Hungry Jacks et al), basically because I think the food mostly tastes pretty crap. However, I would definitely eat one of these babies. I might even come back and have a second one! (I have McDonalds every year or two and realise again that the reason I don't eat it is that it tastes so poor).
Couple other things of interest.
Came across some articles by a guy who writes for The Village Voice in New York. Going through his archives there's a great article about gangsta rap and the impact of crack crime and rap culture on young unemployed black men in the ghetto. While it's written in 2003 it's still got some great points about the glorification of gang violence and drug dealing in rap culture, even though much of that lifestyle has disappeared, while the young black men remain unemployed.
There's another great one from the same guy, published in Time magazine, about computer gaming and World of Warcraft in particular. Now, I've never played WoW, but I have played another MMORPG, back before WoW emerged on the scene. One of the reasons that I never signed up was because from all accounts I could find, it took the things that most people do in these games, such as grinding (killing lots of the same monsters to raise your level) and hanging out in safe zones, and made that the point of the whole game. The idea is, if that's what most people do, lets just give them that. Fair enough, it worked for them, as an 8million strong subscriber base will attest to.
However, enough bashing of WoW, the really interesting part of this post is looking at the reasons why people play such games. And the main ones are being able to interact with people, to form communities and do activities, and to have a feeling of accomplishment, of having done great feats, conquered foes and achieved significant goals. I can totally relate to that and still have great memories of running around a virtual world, being scared silly by things that could destroy me in an instant and the excitement of achieving major quests.
Couple more links, if you haven't seen The Escapist and you like video games, than you should. He might rant on a bit, but his reviews are quite good and funny as well. For those who hate his style, his description on Wikipedia will make you feel much better.
Last but not least, a quick piece from the US about teacher unions and their various failings. There's some similarities with Oz and there's some differences, but generally I agree with the point that unions care more about teachers than they do students (as they should, that's their role) and that we need to find some way of recognising those better teachers rather than paying all teachers identically, no matter their ability or location. Why does a crap teacher in an easy school get paid exactly the same as an amazing teacher in a difficult school when they both have the same experience?
That being said, I think NAPLAN is crap and almost useless as a diagnostic tool for individual students and the idea of relying on it for anything at all seems to be quite pointless.
Harry out!
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
The boys fight back...
Football so far...
So the AFL has had an interesting start to the year. Generally speaking, most of the outcomes so far have been pretty expected. Probably the major shocks have been the form of Fremantle (great) and Adelaide (awful). Sydney has also been going quite well, probably much better than expected.
For me, the big disappointment has been Collingwood. Last week they weren't able to beat a St Kilda that was missing Riewoldt and Koschitzke. Not only that, but the Collingwood forward line is looking seriously ineffective. Their defence is great, their midfield looks great but their forwards (Cloke, Didak, Anthony, Davis) need to actually do something. Unless they can turn things around (which lets face it, is possible, Collingwood regularly do that) than the flag is beyond them this year.
So, a new look at how we can expect things to turn out this year.
Bulldogs
St Kilda
These guys seem to clearly be ahead of the pack so far
Geelong
They're the wounded champion (think Essendon in 2001 or Brisbane in 2004) but they still have the ability to put the hurt on. Do they have what it takes to win another flag?
Collingwood, Hawthorn, Brisbane
These teams are all strong, and potentially top 4, but they're not firing 100% at the moment. They do have the teams to bust anyone though, they just need to sort themselves out.
Sydney, Fremantle
Sydney has been the surprise packet, winning games and looking quite solid. Do they have the chops in their backline to match it with the big boys though? Fremantle have been amazing. I have massive wraps on Matthew Pavlich and it's nice to see them finally be good at the start of a season. If they can win on the road (especially now that teams realise they're a serious threat) than who knows where they'll end up.
Essendon, Carlton, Port?
These guys have the game to take it to the big boys, but aren't balanced out, either lacking key players or having very young lists. They might make up numbers in the finals but realistically they can't win a flag.
West Coast, Adelaide
West Coast have been doing alright (apart from not winning) and have a couple of genuine A-listers (Kerr and Glass, Cox if he's uninjured), but they're not going to win a flag anytime soon. Who wouldn't like Natanui in their team for the next 10 years though? Adelaide are just too old. They're structured and well drilled but just seem past it. The worst thing is that without their old midfielders they'd be even further in the hole! They definitely should be higher than this (expectations were top four) so they should turn things around, maybe.
North Melbourne, Melbourne
North Melbourne have lost their forward and have an old and inconsistent midfield. They should win a few games, but it's not going to be a fun year for their supporters. Melbourne has a very young list. They've shown that when they put in a full effort they can have a real dip, but they're necessarily going to be inconsistent because of the youth of their list.
Richmond
What can I say, they're screwed.
Obviously things are going to change, especially this weekend with the Hawthorn/Collingwood match, but that seems to be the state of play at the moment.
cheers
Harry
Edit - Bulldogs/Brisbane is going to be fascinating as well!
So the AFL has had an interesting start to the year. Generally speaking, most of the outcomes so far have been pretty expected. Probably the major shocks have been the form of Fremantle (great) and Adelaide (awful). Sydney has also been going quite well, probably much better than expected.
For me, the big disappointment has been Collingwood. Last week they weren't able to beat a St Kilda that was missing Riewoldt and Koschitzke. Not only that, but the Collingwood forward line is looking seriously ineffective. Their defence is great, their midfield looks great but their forwards (Cloke, Didak, Anthony, Davis) need to actually do something. Unless they can turn things around (which lets face it, is possible, Collingwood regularly do that) than the flag is beyond them this year.
So, a new look at how we can expect things to turn out this year.
Bulldogs
St Kilda
These guys seem to clearly be ahead of the pack so far
Geelong
They're the wounded champion (think Essendon in 2001 or Brisbane in 2004) but they still have the ability to put the hurt on. Do they have what it takes to win another flag?
Collingwood, Hawthorn, Brisbane
These teams are all strong, and potentially top 4, but they're not firing 100% at the moment. They do have the teams to bust anyone though, they just need to sort themselves out.
Sydney, Fremantle
Sydney has been the surprise packet, winning games and looking quite solid. Do they have the chops in their backline to match it with the big boys though? Fremantle have been amazing. I have massive wraps on Matthew Pavlich and it's nice to see them finally be good at the start of a season. If they can win on the road (especially now that teams realise they're a serious threat) than who knows where they'll end up.
Essendon, Carlton, Port?
These guys have the game to take it to the big boys, but aren't balanced out, either lacking key players or having very young lists. They might make up numbers in the finals but realistically they can't win a flag.
West Coast, Adelaide
West Coast have been doing alright (apart from not winning) and have a couple of genuine A-listers (Kerr and Glass, Cox if he's uninjured), but they're not going to win a flag anytime soon. Who wouldn't like Natanui in their team for the next 10 years though? Adelaide are just too old. They're structured and well drilled but just seem past it. The worst thing is that without their old midfielders they'd be even further in the hole! They definitely should be higher than this (expectations were top four) so they should turn things around, maybe.
North Melbourne, Melbourne
North Melbourne have lost their forward and have an old and inconsistent midfield. They should win a few games, but it's not going to be a fun year for their supporters. Melbourne has a very young list. They've shown that when they put in a full effort they can have a real dip, but they're necessarily going to be inconsistent because of the youth of their list.
Richmond
What can I say, they're screwed.
Obviously things are going to change, especially this weekend with the Hawthorn/Collingwood match, but that seems to be the state of play at the moment.
cheers
Harry
Edit - Bulldogs/Brisbane is going to be fascinating as well!
Thursday, March 18, 2010
dirty politics
So the Labor party made an obvious choice in this election campaign to go dirty, early. They have been running a very negative campaign against the Liberals since day one. This campaign has not only continued, but it has actually gotten dirtier since then, broadening to include the Greens as well.
This is all very well, they're obviously desperate to stay in office and doing everything they can to achieve that.
I personally thought that the campaign would backfire on them, with the contrast between negative Labor ads and positive Liberal ads showing up the differences between the two parties. However, in the last week the Labor party have been pushing heavily their ad about the Liberals "preferring a road to a hospital" and letting down the state when it comes to health.
I believe that these ads have the potential to be really significant in the community. Why?
My grade 9 classes have been doing some polling as part of our SOSE course, asking people about the election. Results from last Thursday came in almost identical to the results from the Sunday Examiner EMRS poll, showing pretty clearly 1 vote each for Greens, Labor and Liberal, with the remaining two seats carved up somehow between the big two, possibly both to Liberal but probably one each. On the important issues, the biggest (far and away) was health, with well over twice as many people worried about health over education, itself 4 times more important than the next issue, the pulp mill.
Other polls we've done since then back up the importance of the health issue, it is far and away the most important issue raised when people are asked.
Not only that, but classes that have gone out this week (today and yesterday) are showing a marked decline for Liberal and Greens with votes going back to Labor. The undecided vote has also dropped.
While it's impossible to be certain based off a small poll in one town, I have to say that the health/midlands highway issue is resonating and could potentially turn things around for the Government.
If it does it will give the green light to ultra-negative campaigning nation wide, which doesn't sound fun. Guess we'll just have to see what happens.
On a side note, if you go to my first link, which is a Labor website pretending to be a Liberals website but bagging out Liberal policies, you will see they attack the Liberals because their Midlands Highway proposal isn't serious or feasible or costed. Yet in their TV ads they're attacking the Libs because it is! Hypocrisy, thy name is desperation....
:)
Two days to go!
This is all very well, they're obviously desperate to stay in office and doing everything they can to achieve that.
I personally thought that the campaign would backfire on them, with the contrast between negative Labor ads and positive Liberal ads showing up the differences between the two parties. However, in the last week the Labor party have been pushing heavily their ad about the Liberals "preferring a road to a hospital" and letting down the state when it comes to health.
I believe that these ads have the potential to be really significant in the community. Why?
My grade 9 classes have been doing some polling as part of our SOSE course, asking people about the election. Results from last Thursday came in almost identical to the results from the Sunday Examiner EMRS poll, showing pretty clearly 1 vote each for Greens, Labor and Liberal, with the remaining two seats carved up somehow between the big two, possibly both to Liberal but probably one each. On the important issues, the biggest (far and away) was health, with well over twice as many people worried about health over education, itself 4 times more important than the next issue, the pulp mill.
Other polls we've done since then back up the importance of the health issue, it is far and away the most important issue raised when people are asked.
Not only that, but classes that have gone out this week (today and yesterday) are showing a marked decline for Liberal and Greens with votes going back to Labor. The undecided vote has also dropped.
While it's impossible to be certain based off a small poll in one town, I have to say that the health/midlands highway issue is resonating and could potentially turn things around for the Government.
If it does it will give the green light to ultra-negative campaigning nation wide, which doesn't sound fun. Guess we'll just have to see what happens.
On a side note, if you go to my first link, which is a Labor website pretending to be a Liberals website but bagging out Liberal policies, you will see they attack the Liberals because their Midlands Highway proposal isn't serious or feasible or costed. Yet in their TV ads they're attacking the Libs because it is! Hypocrisy, thy name is desperation....
:)
Two days to go!
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Predictions
It's always nice to have predictions put in place early, so you can prove that you were right! Of course it doesn't work so well if you're wrong, but nothing ventured nothing gained.
First off, the Tasmanian state election.
In Braddon, the smart money is on 2,2,1 ie Labor and Liberal getting 2 seats each and the Greens the single. While this is most likely, I'm going to put my hand up and and say that I think there is a distinct possibility of 1 Labor, 3 Liberal and 1 Green. The other possibility is no Greens at all, but I think my scenario is much more likely.
For the state the Liberals certainly look like they're going to win more seats, but an outright majority is unlikely. I think Will Hodgman is definitely on the right track with his campaigning solidly on a "Liberal majority government" theme. It worked for Labor last time around, with many people deciding late to support the party which could win outright.
The most interesting twist in this election is that anecdotally, many people are saying they're going to vote Green for the first time. This includes many Liberal voters and Labor voters sick of the Labor Party. I predict a lot more Greens preferences are going to swing to the Liberals than normal (a LOT more) which is going to make it very hard for Labor when trying to pick up second seats around the state.
The most likely outcome is a hung Parliament, probably 11 Liberals, 5 Greens and 9 Labor. However, there is a very strong possibility of 6 Greens (with a second in Denison). I think there is a reasonable possibility of 6 Greens, 12 or 13 Liberals and 6 or 7 Labor. THAT would be extremely interesting!
Wildcards:
Health would seem to be the big issue at the moment. I had my class doing some polling and 56 people put health down as the most important issue for this election. 18 put education, 6 put the pulp mill and 4 put jobs! Labor are pushing the health barrow, who knows if it will gain traction for them?
As already mentioned, majority Government is going to be an issue. Many Tasmanians don't like it and don't want it. When faced with the very real possibility of it happening expect to see many of those votes move to the Libs. Will it be enough? Who knows?
Next Federal politics.
Kevin Rudd is on the nose, people are finally waking up and smelling the bull shit and his poll numbers have been on a very slow but steady decline for a while now. Also, Tony Abbot's numbers are about as good as any opposition leader has had.
Labor are on the backfoot and need to keep their head up until after the budget. Abbot needs to get them on the ropes and punch them in the head until they fall. He has the weapons for this, with the insulation debacle, Rudd's ridiculous health scheme and Rudd's seeming feud with the NSW Government. Faffing around with maternity leave schemes does not help the cause, he should be focussing on the Government while he has material to work with.
My prediction:
Labor are in trouble for the next election. Probably unlikely to lose (although Beazley very nearly knocked Howard off after one term) but still take a hiding.
Gillard is waiting until Rudd stuffs up the next election to swoop in and take over. She has the numbers on the left plus she's been all authoritarian and school ma'am-ish, which should help her with the right. Only problem is that that plan won't work if Labor lose the election! Also, Greg Combet is building a head of steam and seems likely to be accumulating votes at the moment, which might be a problem for her.
Global Warming
Global warming is dead. Most people don't seem to have realised it yet, but the idea that the world will end unless we reduce our CO2 emissions has run its course. Maybe we are warming the earth with our emissions (possible but unlikely and basically unverifiable anyway) but even if we are, the negative consequences are small and there's lots of positive consequences.
You want real armageddon stuff? Iran nearly has a nuclear weapon. Pakistan is a hair's breadth away from falling to the fundamentalists. We have a nuclear war in the Middle East and suddenly the world's major supply of oil is no use. How you gonna feed 6 billion people when the vast majority rely heavily on the internal combustion engine to deliver their food to them?
Ok, onto more important stuff.
AFL
The doggies were super impressive against the Saints on Saturday, even though I only saw bits of the game. I have to admit never being a huge fan of the dogs, but now, suddenly, they have some height and I find them much more interesting to watch. They have plenty of tough bodies, plenty of runners and now, some good height in the back line and forward line.
I think anything less than top four is unacceptable and they are a realistic shot for top 2 and a flag.
The Saints have to be good this year, after the build up of last year. They have experience and hunger and talent, how can they not go well? That being said, lots of teams make it to a Grand Final and then disappear from view. As for the Bulldogs, anything less than top four is unacceptable and they are a realistic shot for top 2 and a flag.
Geelong have the team, the talent and the experience, but do they have the motivation? It's an awfully long hill to climb and maybe they've been there too many times already? I would expect a top 4 finish (at least) for the Cats, but they could be much lower.
Collingwood have recruited heavily and look very very good (at least on paper). They are aiming for the flag this year, with Mick's last roll of the dice. I enjoy watching Collingwood play and would like them to do well, but I'm sceptical. The one thing we do know; whatever they do at the start of the season probably has no bearing on the end of the season! If they start well, that's good. If they start poorly that might be better, they'll turn it around and come storming home at the end of the year!
Hawthorn might be back this year, who knows? Buddy is looking significantly improved (apparently he was ordered to bulk up last year, not such a great decision in hindsight) and they have an awesome midfield and forward line. That being said, I still think they're very weak defensively and some teams (Brisbane and St Kilda especially) are going to expose them and cut them up. They want another flag and top 4 is certainly realistic.
Now last, but not least, the mystery package, the Fev and Brown show. Can Brisbane recruit their way to a premiership? Probably not, although their young kids are coming through and they have good rucks, running players and a solid defence. I think Brisbane are the smokey, but personally I'm doubtful they can go all the way.
So that's a top 4 list with 6 teams in it. I think Brisbane and Geelong might miss out, but I wouldn't want to put any money on it!
As for the Coleman, I think Barry Hall is the man to watch this year. Fev no longer has Judd to stick it down his throat, while Riewoldt, Brown and Buddy all have goal kicking partners to spread the load around. Buddy is a big chance but you would have to see Roughead kicking at least 60 this year and if he does that than Buddy probably won't get his century.
Top five? Hall, Franklin, Riewoldt, Brown with Fevola and Roughead tied for fifth!
TFL
Can anyone really see Burnie recovering from the off field debacles of the last few months? Plappy dragged them into a final series that they probably didn't deserve to be in and things have just gone downhill since he left!
NTFL
Surely Ulverstone has to win this year?
Darwin
God himself, in his omnipotent, omniscient omnipresence could probably not say who's going to win this one. I would love Natone to win but I'm kind of sceptical I have to admit, certainly not huge numbers coming to training.
So, there we go, a few random predictions that may or may not come true. Let history be my judge!
Harry
First off, the Tasmanian state election.
In Braddon, the smart money is on 2,2,1 ie Labor and Liberal getting 2 seats each and the Greens the single. While this is most likely, I'm going to put my hand up and and say that I think there is a distinct possibility of 1 Labor, 3 Liberal and 1 Green. The other possibility is no Greens at all, but I think my scenario is much more likely.
For the state the Liberals certainly look like they're going to win more seats, but an outright majority is unlikely. I think Will Hodgman is definitely on the right track with his campaigning solidly on a "Liberal majority government" theme. It worked for Labor last time around, with many people deciding late to support the party which could win outright.
The most interesting twist in this election is that anecdotally, many people are saying they're going to vote Green for the first time. This includes many Liberal voters and Labor voters sick of the Labor Party. I predict a lot more Greens preferences are going to swing to the Liberals than normal (a LOT more) which is going to make it very hard for Labor when trying to pick up second seats around the state.
The most likely outcome is a hung Parliament, probably 11 Liberals, 5 Greens and 9 Labor. However, there is a very strong possibility of 6 Greens (with a second in Denison). I think there is a reasonable possibility of 6 Greens, 12 or 13 Liberals and 6 or 7 Labor. THAT would be extremely interesting!
Wildcards:
Health would seem to be the big issue at the moment. I had my class doing some polling and 56 people put health down as the most important issue for this election. 18 put education, 6 put the pulp mill and 4 put jobs! Labor are pushing the health barrow, who knows if it will gain traction for them?
As already mentioned, majority Government is going to be an issue. Many Tasmanians don't like it and don't want it. When faced with the very real possibility of it happening expect to see many of those votes move to the Libs. Will it be enough? Who knows?
Next Federal politics.
Kevin Rudd is on the nose, people are finally waking up and smelling the bull shit and his poll numbers have been on a very slow but steady decline for a while now. Also, Tony Abbot's numbers are about as good as any opposition leader has had.
Labor are on the backfoot and need to keep their head up until after the budget. Abbot needs to get them on the ropes and punch them in the head until they fall. He has the weapons for this, with the insulation debacle, Rudd's ridiculous health scheme and Rudd's seeming feud with the NSW Government. Faffing around with maternity leave schemes does not help the cause, he should be focussing on the Government while he has material to work with.
My prediction:
Labor are in trouble for the next election. Probably unlikely to lose (although Beazley very nearly knocked Howard off after one term) but still take a hiding.
Gillard is waiting until Rudd stuffs up the next election to swoop in and take over. She has the numbers on the left plus she's been all authoritarian and school ma'am-ish, which should help her with the right. Only problem is that that plan won't work if Labor lose the election! Also, Greg Combet is building a head of steam and seems likely to be accumulating votes at the moment, which might be a problem for her.
Global Warming
Global warming is dead. Most people don't seem to have realised it yet, but the idea that the world will end unless we reduce our CO2 emissions has run its course. Maybe we are warming the earth with our emissions (possible but unlikely and basically unverifiable anyway) but even if we are, the negative consequences are small and there's lots of positive consequences.
You want real armageddon stuff? Iran nearly has a nuclear weapon. Pakistan is a hair's breadth away from falling to the fundamentalists. We have a nuclear war in the Middle East and suddenly the world's major supply of oil is no use. How you gonna feed 6 billion people when the vast majority rely heavily on the internal combustion engine to deliver their food to them?
Ok, onto more important stuff.
AFL
The doggies were super impressive against the Saints on Saturday, even though I only saw bits of the game. I have to admit never being a huge fan of the dogs, but now, suddenly, they have some height and I find them much more interesting to watch. They have plenty of tough bodies, plenty of runners and now, some good height in the back line and forward line.
I think anything less than top four is unacceptable and they are a realistic shot for top 2 and a flag.
The Saints have to be good this year, after the build up of last year. They have experience and hunger and talent, how can they not go well? That being said, lots of teams make it to a Grand Final and then disappear from view. As for the Bulldogs, anything less than top four is unacceptable and they are a realistic shot for top 2 and a flag.
Geelong have the team, the talent and the experience, but do they have the motivation? It's an awfully long hill to climb and maybe they've been there too many times already? I would expect a top 4 finish (at least) for the Cats, but they could be much lower.
Collingwood have recruited heavily and look very very good (at least on paper). They are aiming for the flag this year, with Mick's last roll of the dice. I enjoy watching Collingwood play and would like them to do well, but I'm sceptical. The one thing we do know; whatever they do at the start of the season probably has no bearing on the end of the season! If they start well, that's good. If they start poorly that might be better, they'll turn it around and come storming home at the end of the year!
Hawthorn might be back this year, who knows? Buddy is looking significantly improved (apparently he was ordered to bulk up last year, not such a great decision in hindsight) and they have an awesome midfield and forward line. That being said, I still think they're very weak defensively and some teams (Brisbane and St Kilda especially) are going to expose them and cut them up. They want another flag and top 4 is certainly realistic.
Now last, but not least, the mystery package, the Fev and Brown show. Can Brisbane recruit their way to a premiership? Probably not, although their young kids are coming through and they have good rucks, running players and a solid defence. I think Brisbane are the smokey, but personally I'm doubtful they can go all the way.
So that's a top 4 list with 6 teams in it. I think Brisbane and Geelong might miss out, but I wouldn't want to put any money on it!
As for the Coleman, I think Barry Hall is the man to watch this year. Fev no longer has Judd to stick it down his throat, while Riewoldt, Brown and Buddy all have goal kicking partners to spread the load around. Buddy is a big chance but you would have to see Roughead kicking at least 60 this year and if he does that than Buddy probably won't get his century.
Top five? Hall, Franklin, Riewoldt, Brown with Fevola and Roughead tied for fifth!
TFL
Can anyone really see Burnie recovering from the off field debacles of the last few months? Plappy dragged them into a final series that they probably didn't deserve to be in and things have just gone downhill since he left!
NTFL
Surely Ulverstone has to win this year?
Darwin
God himself, in his omnipotent, omniscient omnipresence could probably not say who's going to win this one. I would love Natone to win but I'm kind of sceptical I have to admit, certainly not huge numbers coming to training.
So, there we go, a few random predictions that may or may not come true. Let history be my judge!
Harry
Friday, March 5, 2010
the winners
Shaun posted this on Facebook and it was just too good not to put up here. This is the original URL it came from.
cheers
Harry
cheers
Harry
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