So the Labor Party in Tasmania have gone dirty. Early and hard as well. They're really laying the boots in hoping to scare people with a negative campaign. At the same time they're spending money like there's no tomorrow (which for them, there isn't).
Interesting news.
The latest EMRS poll (with a tiny dataset admittedly) has a consistent Green vote statewide of around 23% with 40% in Denison. Given the upward Green trend in Denison theres a real possibility of 2 seats there. That means that there's a real possibility of David Bartlett losing is seat! Ken Sturgess has the bogan vote sewn up and Lisa Singh has the greenie/swearing at media/hard left Labor vote sewn up (apparently) so Bartlett might be on his arse. In fact looking at the numbers (off a tiny dataset as said) Labor could be looking at only 7 seats. More likely is 9 seats, with a hung parliament.
Pollywaffle. Apparently when asked on radio whether it was an attack on Polley and Llewellyn she replied "no, and Rene Hidding"! Not "no, it's an attack on Rene Hidding" but AND Rene Hidding!
Also, Bartlett announced yesterday or the day before $3million dollars for the Simplot factory in Ulverstone. He then claimed that thanks to that money Simplot would be staying. Except of course, that Simplot had already announced that a) they were staying and b)they'd committed to spend 17 or 18 million dollars of their own money in the factory anyway.
When Bartlett turned up and announced money for a project (money they hadnt asked for and don't know what exactly it's meant to be for) and then claimed credit for stopping Simplot from going offshore, apparently an awful lot of people there were quite angry.
Anyway, fascinating times.
Things to think about: This is Paul O'Hallorans best (and last) chance to win a seat in Braddon for the Greens. Polling shows that he's a strong chance but he has almost no personal vote, so it's still a mystery
Lots of people are going to be voting Green this election (anecdotally), but they're not Labor supporters. Look to see a lot more Green preferences flow to the Liberals than normal.
Compare and contrast he Labor attack ads with the Liberal candidate ads (haven't seen any Labor candidate ads in Braddon). The contrast is massive and I think there would have to be some positive resonance in the electorate.
Labor are in panic mode, except the dirty campaign to get even dirtier!
Harry out
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3 comments:
Totally agree re: Denison Labor vote. Singh and (Graeme) Sturges have their own support bases and there's no order on the ticket so Bartlett's status as premier won't give him any advantage.
Remember, whoever you vote for, a politician gets in.
Good luck with that. (And here is hoping for a hung parliament.)
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